🚀 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls May Be Revised Down by 1 Million, Fueling Fed Rate Cut Bets
#NFP #NonFarmPayrolls #PayrollRevision #USJobs #LaborMarket #JobsData #FedRateCut #RateCutExpectation #FedWatch #MonetaryPolicy #SeptemberRateCut #EconomicData #InflationConcerns
Key TakeawaysEconomists warn the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may cut up to 1 million jobs from prior payroll estimates.Wells Fargo and others forecast an 800,000-job downward revision, averaging 67,000 fewer jobs per month.A major revision would highlight labor market weakness and strengthen expectations for a September Fed rate cut.Labor Market Set for Major RevisionThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release revised annual non-farm payroll (NFP) data on Tuesday. Economists from Wells Fargo, Cointelegraph, and Pansen Macro expect the March 2025 job tally to come in 800,000 lower than earlier reported. This implies the economy added 67,000 fewer jobs per month than initially thought.Nomura Securities, Bank of America, and RBC go further, projecting the revision could approach 1 million jobs.Fed Rate Cut Expectations RiseA sharp downward adjustment would confirm that the U.S. labor market slowed more than previously recognized in 2024, reinforcing the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Markets already price in a September rate reduction, with traders betting on at least a 0.25% cut, according to CME FedWatch data.Analysts suggest weaker jobs data could accelerate easing, even as inflation concerns persist. #NFP #NonFarmPayrolls #PayrollRevision #USJobs #LaborMarket #JobsData #FedRateCut #RateCutExpectation #FedWatch #MonetaryPolicy #SeptemberRateCut #EconomicData #InflationConcerns
🚀 Maybank Warns of Record Downward Payroll Revision as Dollar Volatility Persists Ahead of NFP
#Maybank #USdollar #volatility #NFP #nonfarmpayrolls #USjobs #employmentdata #DXY #retailsales #unemploymentrate #jobrevisions #laborreport #payrollrevision #economicdata
The U.S. dollar is likely to remain volatile ahead of the January non-farm payrolls (NFP) release, as markets brace for what could be the largest annual downward revision to U.S. employment data on record, according to Maybank.In a research note cited by Jin10, Maybank said the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has recently found near-term support, with some short positions being modestly unwound as investors adopt a cautious stance before the data release. This has helped stabilize the dollar despite weaker-than-expected U.S. December retail sales, which showed zero month-on-month growth.Markets focus on jobs data and revisionsMarket attention is now firmly on January’s U.S. labor report. Maybank expects non-farm payrolls to rise by around 65,000 jobs, compared with roughly 50,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.4%.More critically, the bank highlighted expectations for a 2025 annual benchmark revision of about -825,000 jobs, a figure that would mark the largest downward revision in U.S. payroll history. Maybank said this looming adjustment has been a key factor weighing on the dollar in recent sessions, as investors reassess the underlying strength of the U.S. labor market.Dollar likely to consolidate before releaseDespite elevated volatility earlier in the week, Maybank expects the dollar to trade in a consolidative range ahead of the NFP release, as markets await confirmation from the labor data.#Maybank #USdollar #volatility #NFP #nonfarmpayrolls #USjobs #employmentdata #DXY #retailsales #unemploymentrate #jobrevisions #laborreport #payrollrevision #economicdata