🚀 Federal Reserve's Economic Forecast Reveals Unemployment Rate Projections Through 2028

According to ChainCatcher, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has released its economic forecast, outlining expected unemployment rates for the years 2025 through 2028. The projections indicate that the unemployment rate is anticipated to be 4.5% at the end of 2025, 4.4% in 2026, and 4.2% for both 2027 and 2028. These figures show a slight adjustment from the September forecast, which predicted unemployment rates of 4.5% for 2025, 4.4% for 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028.

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🚀 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Projections for March to June

On January 30, according to Jin10, the CME's 'FedWatch' tool indicates a 15.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by March, with an 84.7% chance of maintaining the current rate. By April, the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut increases to 29.7%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 67.2%, and a 50 basis point cut stands at 3.2%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 48.3%, with a 33.7% chance of no change and a 16.4% likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction.

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🚀 U.S. February CPI Projections: Mixed Expectations Among Major Banks

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is anticipated to show varied results according to projections from major financial institutions. According to Jin10, the unadjusted annual CPI rate is expected to remain at 2.4%, consistent with the previous value and Reuters' forecast. However, Goldman Sachs predicts a slightly lower rate of 2.3%, while Berenberg, Citibank, HSBC, JPMorgan, Danske Bank, Nomura Securities, RBC, Morgan Stanley, and ING anticipate a higher rate of 2.5% to 2.6%.

For the seasonally adjusted monthly CPI rate, the previous value was 0.2%, with Reuters forecasting an increase to 0.3%. Several banks, including ABN AMRO, ANZ, BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, and others, expect the rate to remain at 0.2%. In contrast, Standard Chartered, Barclays, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, and others project an increase to 0.3%.

These projections reflect differing expectations among financial institutions regarding inflation trends in the U.S. economy. The CPI data is closely watched as it influences monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.

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