good morning, broke down under where I mentioned now, not the best look short term but the weekly still looks good imo & has the potential for higher but that can come with dips. I’ll be more cautious if we break under ~75K

Still good things to look forward to:

- US/Iran Deal
- Saylor & STRC giga buying next month (ex dividend date is mid month so can expect pol to pile in to get yield -> vol up -> buy btc

TRUMP AND OIL COMPANIES DISCUSSED STEPS TO CONTINUE IRAN BLOCKADE FOR MONTHS IF NEEDED -WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL

Big day today macro wise!

FOMC Meeting
• Rates @ 2PM EST
• JP Presser @ 2:30PM EST

I think it might be Powell’s last one(?)

Also very big tech company earnings come out today after the close: Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon.

The earnings are gonna be more impactful than FOMC imo.

*CENTCOM HAS PREPARED FOR SHORT WAVE OF STRIKES ON IRAN: AXIOS

*META LAUNCHES STABLECOIN PAYOUTS FOR CREATORS USING STRIPE - THE INFORMATION

*META USES CIRCLE’S STABLECOIN ON SOLANA AND POLYGON BLOCKCHAINS FOR PAYOUTS

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED as expected.

STRC moving back towards par, trading @ $99.75 right now. If this can get back to $100 soon then we will get good Saylor flows back and push us to 80K again.

Reading some things about $PENDLE and it’s correlation with STRC.

TLDR; most of the protocol’s revenue goes back to the holders through buybacks and staking rewards and not just emissions. As STRC usage and TVL grows -> creates more buy pressure on PENDLE and also boosts yield for people staking it. Basically a direct bet on STRC through PENDLE.

I’m going to scale bids on it from here down to $1.40’s with an invalidation at $1.20~

Didn’t fill all the way but it’s up +5% so far, looks good for higher. I’m gonna take some off since I sized decent and holding the rest for now 🫡

TRUMP: US IN POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS WITH IRAN THAT COULD LEAD TO SOMETHING VERY POSITIVE

$80K finally here ✅

Positions update:

BTC spot buys up ~14% now, will update when I TP more

PENDLE long also green, didn’t fill all my bids but holding, still looks good up 6% or so

DUBAI SHELTER WARNING

gm, looks like some fud about Iran striking US ships overnight, BTC fell a little then US denied, now the dubai warning just came out

PENDLE really nice move overnight, up 17% now I’m taking more profit here and I moved stop loss to B/E

UAE'S FUJAIRAH SAYS FIRE ERUPTS IN PETROLEUM INDUSTRIAL SITE FOLLOWING DRONE ATTACK FROM IRAN

Accidentally closed all of PENDLE while on mobile 🥲

+18% so we’ll take the W

Can stay in if you’d like

(Sources close to Axios reports that Iranian ‘peace rockets’ were launched at the UAE as a way to celebrate the end of the war)

Well that was an awful mistake on my end, it’s up +24% now hope some of you are still in!

WHITE HOUSE ON LOCKDOWN AFTER SHOTS FIRED

One thing I wanted to say that happens a lot during times like this is:

Price moves -> Narrative follows

in this case $80K being a big level to flip and hold for BTC imo. People will see XYZ price and think “$100K or new ATH soon?” and end up buying. Also happens a lot in alts as well, like PENDLE was good example of this recently.

On the other hand, BTC usually starts all the rallies in crypto majority of the time. If you go back to the 2022 lows, before most alts, even majors like SOL did any significant move, all eyes were on BTC first; and STRC demand this time around plays a factor in that.

h/t TaikiMaeda2