🚀 Short-Term Holder Profitability Reaches Local Peak, Demand Remains Strong
#ShortTermHolder #Profitability #CryptoQuant #STH #Demand #TokenMarket #MarketTrends
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr has observed that the short-term holder profitability ratio (STH SOPR, 30-day moving average) has recently reached a local peak. This indicates that short-term investors are realizing significant profits when selling on-chain. Despite this, the demand for tokens remains robust and has not hindered the current upward trend. The indicator has yet to reach the sentiment peak levels seen during historical market highs.#ShortTermHolder #Profitability #CryptoQuant #STH #Demand #TokenMarket #MarketTrends
🚀 Bitcoin Market Undergoes Constructive Adjustment Amid Investor Sell-Off
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChainData #MarketCorrection #CryptoMarket #NewInvestors #NewEntrants #UnrealizedLoss #UnrealizedGain #ShortTermHolders #STH #PanicSelling #MarketFoundation
According to BlockBeats, a typical market correction is currently unfolding in the Bitcoin sector. On-chain data reveals that new Bitcoin investors are selling at a loss, while more experienced holders are absorbing these sales. This is not a sign of systemic weakness but rather a constructive adjustment that helps clear speculative leverage, thereby strengthening the market's foundation.
The primary impact is on the newest market entrants, who have held Bitcoin for less than a month and are experiencing an average unrealized loss of -3.5%. Their response has been straightforward: sell. This group’s Bitcoin supply has significantly decreased in recent weeks, exemplifying a textbook case of panic selling.
In contrast, the broader group of short-term holders (STH) remains stable and profitable, with an overall unrealized gain of +4.5%. This indicates that while the newest investors are exiting, those who have held Bitcoin for 1-6 months are not only maintaining their positions but are also in a relatively comfortable profit state. The decline in STH total supply is not a sign of widespread panic but a direct result of speculative investors capitulating.
This development is structurally positive. The market is cleansing itself of its weakest holders, transferring Bitcoin to those with lower costs and stronger conviction. As panic selling subsides, the selling pressure above the market significantly decreases, resulting in a more stable price structure. Although this adjustment is painful for recent high-level buyers, it lays a solid foundation for the next major upward movement.#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChainData #MarketCorrection #CryptoMarket #NewInvestors #NewEntrants #UnrealizedLoss #UnrealizedGain #ShortTermHolders #STH #PanicSelling #MarketFoundation
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🚀 Bitcoin Market Sentiment Analyzed Through Short-Term Holder Metrics
#Bitcoin #MarketSentiment #STH-RP #ShortTermHolders #Bullish #Bearish #BitcoinRebound #InvestorConfidence #CryptoMarket #BTC
According to BlockBeats, on-chain analyst Murphy has identified the realized price of Bitcoin's short-term holders (STH-RP) as a key indicator of market sentiment, serving as a boundary between bullish and bearish phases. A rapid rebound in price after touching the STH-RP suggests that new investors are not only refraining from selling near their cost price but are also attracting additional buying interest, indicating confidence in future market trends.
Market sentiment typically evolves through three stages:
Stage 1: Bitcoin slightly dips below the STH-RP and then rebounds significantly, reflecting investor confidence in the trend, viewing short-term corrections as opportunities.
Stage 2: Bitcoin falls significantly below the STH-RP and rebounds slightly, indicating weakened investor confidence, though some still believe the trend is ongoing.
Stage 3: Bitcoin's rebound fails to surpass the STH-RP, leading to consistent investor skepticism about the trend, with a tendency to exit when prices return to the cost line.
From September 26 to 28, Bitcoin corrected to around $109,000, slightly below the STH-RP, before strongly rebounding to $125,000, corresponding to Stage 1. On October 17, the STH-RP was $113,000, with Bitcoin correcting to around $104,000, marking a significant drop. Last night, Bitcoin rose to touch the STH-RP before retreating, suggesting the market is currently in Stage 2 or transitioning between Stage 2 and Stage 3.#Bitcoin #MarketSentiment #STH-RP #ShortTermHolders #Bullish #Bearish #BitcoinRebound #InvestorConfidence #CryptoMarket #BTC
🚀 Bitcoin Faces Resistance Amid Downward Trend
#Bitcoin #Resistance #ShortTermHolderRealizedPrice #STH_RP #DownwardTrend #TechnicalAnalysis #FalseBreakouts #BearMarket #ShortPosition #LongPosition #StopLoss #Traders #MarketStrategy #BTC
Bitcoin's price is currently facing resistance due to the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) model, which indicates significant selling pressure when the price approaches the short-term cost average. According to PANews, this often marks the beginning of a major downward trend. As the trend progresses, Bitcoin's price may deviate significantly from the STH-RP, making rebounds less likely.
The current situation shows Bitcoin at the second stage of resistance, where it is blocked by the green line, and both the red and green lines continue to decline. If Bitcoin fails to break through the green line, the probability of further downward movement increases.
As of yesterday, the green line was positioned at $72,000. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's movement in March resembles its behavior in January, with similar downward pressure and false breakouts on the daily chart. In January, Bitcoin struggled to surpass $90,586 and eventually moved downward. Similarly, in March, it failed to maintain above $70,996 and dropped to $65,548.
The likelihood of continued downward movement is greater than upward movement, aligning with the STH-RP risk model analysis. For traders, it is advised to avoid impulsive actions if uncertain, as this could lead to mistakes.
For short-term trading, a strategy could involve opening a short position if Bitcoin rebounds near $70,996, while allowing room for potential false breakouts. A stop-loss should be set if Bitcoin breaks above $72,000.
For long-term positions, traders might consider gradually building positions after entering the third stage of the STH-RP risk model, continuing until the fifth stage. This approach aims to secure purchases within the relative bottom range of the bear market, ensuring controlled costs and higher certainty.#Bitcoin #Resistance #ShortTermHolderRealizedPrice #STH_RP #DownwardTrend #TechnicalAnalysis #FalseBreakouts #BearMarket #ShortPosition #LongPosition #StopLoss #Traders #MarketStrategy #BTC
🚀 CryptoQuant：比特币长期持有者供应量重回增长区间
#比特币 #长期持有者 #BTC供应量 #CryptoQuant #地缘局势 #宏观不确定性 #链上数据 #LTH #STH #UTXO #市场行为 #熊市 #价格改善
CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 指出，尽管地缘局势与宏观不确定性仍令风险资产承压，但市场中“偏向持有”的行为正在回升。链上数据显示，长期持有者（LTH）持有的 BTC 供应量开始逐步增加，意味着当前进入 LTH 类别的 BTC 数量已超过 LTH 的卖出量。需要注意的是，该指标基于 UTXO 统计，并不一定代表 LTH 主动加仓，而是部分在约 6 个月前形成且未被花费的 UTXO 从短期持有者（STH）自然转入 LTH。
数据方面，该指标在 11 月底一度降至约 -67.4 万 BTC（30 日均值），目前已回到正值区间，平均约 +30.8 万 BTC 进入 LTH 供应。历史上，此类转向曾多次领先于价格改善，但报告也强调，熊市中也可能出现类似反转，仍需持续观察其延续性。
#比特币 #长期持有者 #BTC供应量 #CryptoQuant #地缘局势 #宏观不确定性 #链上数据 #LTH #STH #UTXO #市场行为 #熊市 #价格改善