🚀 US Election Uncertainty and Market Expectations
#USElection #MarketExpectations #FederalReserve #IMFWorldBank #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #Volatility #InterestRates #Trump #Harris #Polymarket #Bitfinex #FinancialMarket
According to PANews, Greeks.live macro analyst Adam noted on the X platform that there has been a noticeable decrease in statements from Federal Reserve officials this week. Additionally, the IMF-World Bank annual meetings are worth noting. However, market expectations for the next interest rate cut are relatively unified, limiting the impact of this information on the market.
As the US election approaches, Polymarket shows that Trump's support rate is as high as 60%. Given the current progress, Harris's chances of winning are diminishing in the coming days. However, the election remains highly uncertain, and the implied volatility (IV) of election cycle options remains relatively strong. The cryptocurrency market has quietly returned to around $70,000 in October, after multiple failed attempts to reach new highs this year. It remains to be seen whether the upcoming US election will provide an opportunity for a breakthrough. Currently, the main term IV for Bitcoin is at a moderate level, stabilizing at 55% before and after the election. In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders reaching 20%.#USElection #MarketExpectations #FederalReserve #IMFWorldBank #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #Volatility #InterestRates #Trump #Harris #Polymarket #Bitfinex #FinancialMarket
🚀 Key Economic Data And Market Outlook For The Week
#KeyEconomicData #MarketOutlook #NonFarmPayroll #UnemploymentRate #FederalReserve #Election #Volatility #ADPEmployment #GDP #PCEPriceIndex #JoblessClaims #ISMManufacturing #AppleEarnings #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #InterestRates #Bitfinex
According to BlockBeats, Adam, a researcher at Greeks.live, highlighted on social media that this week is significant for macroeconomic events. The focus will be on Friday's non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate, which are the last major economic indicators before the upcoming election. Notably, Federal Reserve officials have minimal speaking engagements scheduled for this week. Although market attention towards the election is lower than expected, the election still carries substantial uncertainty, with the implied volatility (IV) of election cycle options remaining robust.
Key events for the week include:
On Wednesday, October 30:
- U.S. October ADP Employment Change (20:15 UTC+8)
- U.S. Q3 GDP Annualized Growth Rate Preliminary (20:30 UTC+8)
On Thursday, October 31:
- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Outlook Report
- U.S. September Core PCE Price Index (20:30 UTC+8)
- U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (20:30 UTC+8)
On Friday, November 1:
- U.S. October Unemployment Rate (20:30 UTC+8)
- U.S. October Non-Farm Payrolls (20:30 UTC+8)
- U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00 UTC+8)
- Apple Inc. Earnings Report
In the cryptocurrency market, the performance has been lackluster this week. Bitcoin's attempt to reach new highs failed, and other cryptocurrencies experienced significant declines. The U.S. election appears to have little impact on the crypto market at this point. Currently, Bitcoin's short to medium-term IV is relatively low, generally below 40%, but it rises to 60% during the election week, marking the election as the only notable trading opportunity in the near term.
Regarding the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders reaching 20%. It is advisable to actively engage in suitable interest rate orders, especially during market movements.#KeyEconomicData #MarketOutlook #NonFarmPayroll #UnemploymentRate #FederalReserve #Election #Volatility #ADPEmployment #GDP #PCEPriceIndex #JoblessClaims #ISMManufacturing #AppleEarnings #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #InterestRates #Bitfinex
🚀 Cryptocurrency Market Trends Amid Thanksgiving Week Economic Events
#Cryptocurrency #MarketTrends #Thanksgiving #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #BullMarket #OptionsMarket #Volatility #Investing #Bitfinex #InterestRates #BTC #ETH
According to Odaily, this week marks Thanksgiving, with significant economic events and data releases scheduled for the Wednesday before the holiday. U.S. stock markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday, and recent volatility in crypto-related stocks has shown a strong correlation with the cryptocurrency market, warranting close attention.
Bitcoin is nearing the $100,000 milestone, just a step away from reaching this significant threshold. Last week, Ethereum experienced a substantial rebound, which spurred a broad increase in altcoin prices. The market sentiment is shifting from meme coins back to the main market. Over the weekend, there was a slight pullback, but the market's capacity to absorb this was strong, indicating a robust bull market in the spot market. The bullish sentiment remains dominant. The options market is relatively stable, with block trades and market interest rates being areas of interest. Currently, the implied volatility (IV) for major maturities is at a relatively low level, presenting a favorable opportunity to invest in mid-to-long-term options as the bull market gains momentum.
In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has remained relatively stable recently. It is advisable to actively engage in transactions when suitable interest rate orders arise, especially during market movements. This stability and the potential for advantageous trades make it a noteworthy area for investors to monitor closely during this period.#Cryptocurrency #MarketTrends #Thanksgiving #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #BullMarket #OptionsMarket #Volatility #Investing #Bitfinex #InterestRates #BTC #ETH
🚀 Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Stuck at $116K Resistance Until ‘Decisively Reclaimed,’ Says Bitfinex
#Bitcoin #BTC #Bitfinex #FedRateCut #Q4 #BitcoinResistance #116000 #Ether #ETH
Key Takeaways:Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $116,000, according to Bitfinex analysts.Fed’s Sept. 17 interest rate decision could act as a major catalyst.Q4 historically delivers Bitcoin’s strongest returns, averaging 85% since 2013.$116K Emerges as a Key BarrierBitcoin has established a new resistance zone around $116,000, which will remain in place until bulls decisively reclaim the level, Bitfinex analysts said in a report Tuesday.“BTC now trades at the upper edge of the range near $116,000, which remains resistance until decisively reclaimed,” the exchange noted, adding that Bitcoin’s momentum has faded since its Aug. 14 all-time high of $124,100.At the time of writing, BTC is trading near $116,370, according to CoinMarketCap.Fed Rate Cut Looms LargeThe Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 interest rate decision is front and center for traders, with CME’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut.Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argued that the first rate cut of 2025 could spark a “monster move” for Bitcoin and Ether over the next three months.Not all analysts agree. Trader Ted warned that BTC could still dip to $104,000, or even as low as $92,000, before reversing toward new all-time highs.While rate cuts are typically bullish for risk assets, many caution that the event may already be priced in, limiting upside in the short term.Q4 Could Be the Bullish CatalystBeyond the Fed, traders are also watching the calendar. Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, delivering an average return of 85.42% since 2013, according to CoinGlass.Bitfinex analysts noted that the recent dip to $107,400 on Sept. 1 was mainly driven by newer investors who bought in the February–May correction and used the bounce to exit profitably. Long-term holders, by contrast, continue to show strong conviction.“This dynamic suggests meaningful headwinds for upside momentum in the short term,” Bitfinex concluded, according to Cointelegraph.#Bitcoin #BTC #Bitfinex #FedRateCut #Q4 #BitcoinResistance #116000 #Ether #ETH